View Full Version : Uh oh!! We could be in trouble.

01-13-2012, 09:15 PM
Latest observations not looking good...

I rely on several experts in the weather business then take what they are predicting and try to translate that in what is means for Ice conditions for the NE. What I saw and read as of the last 48 hours is not going to sound fun...

Yes the stratosphere temps over western Canada have exploded. In the past this has a very strong correlation with prolonged arctic air invading into the Eastern half of the US. All of the forecast models were seeing this and started to print out a forecast for a return to real winter for the NE over the last 10 days. Looked like winter was going to pan out after all...

BUT... what appears to be happening is this stratosphere warming is setting up a pattern change but one that will mirror what we had back in end of Nov (think really warm and dry for the NE) This is not set in stone, but I need to throw this out there as the pattern which was supposed to be changing one way, is changing for the worse for the NE. The models have sifted greatly in the last 48 hours.

Check the latest 8-10 temps:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/hgtcomp.html (OUCH!!! All the cold is dump into the west with a strong ridge in the east)

Compare that to what it was looking like just 7 days ago: http://www.iceclimbingphotos.com/data/519/medium/8-10Daytemps.jpg

Huge difference!

Here is my most trusted source (NYNJPAweather.com) somewhat officially throwing in the towel for this winter season.

Grab a stiff drink before you view it.


Basically I was hanging my hat on this pattern change working for us for the NE, but what is materializing right now, is something far worse for anyone wanting a winter in the NE. If its right then I blew it big time along with a lot of other forecasters far better then me. (Ya I'll give ya a refund!)

So what does it mean it things go the other way?

Well we are past half time on this winter, if we don't see a real winter pattern materializing at this point, not much time left to get anything going. Snow will be severely lacking for all (sure we may get a 1 -2 week snowy period but its not looking good) Ice for the northern sections should still be OK. I really don't see warming getting that far north. Still, it may not be all the great either. For the Mass, Catskills, and PA? Humm.... better go fill that tank with gas and get on your way north.

This current cold blast might be our last real decent cold shot for a while.

Well... crap...I gotta call um like I see um...

Just to clarify, yes its cold now, and should stay that way for the next 7 days, what I'm looking at is beyond 7 days.

01-14-2012, 07:57 AM
Congrats Smikey, you've taken the last step to becoming a REAL weatherman...you've been way wrong. :-)

01-14-2012, 01:35 PM
Thanks Mike,( I think) why couldn't I be wrong about the warm instead of the cold....

This sucks...



01-14-2012, 06:59 PM
the 15 day looks real good on acuweather.....

01-15-2012, 10:41 PM
As the the sign says as well... ‘free beer tomorrow’

Going to be a rollercoster ride for a while...get it while and when its good.