View Full Version : The Stratosphere to the rescue!

01-05-2012, 10:50 PM
Well all my previous posts of winter coming are finally falling into place. (again TOTALLY LATE I know)

First the highlights:

Pattern is now moving into high gear into the big change

We have one more bump in the road with a small and ‘short’ warm up, then a big storm to seal the deal and flip the pattern.

The snow guns will finally get moving and start around end of this month.

Jan will end far different then it came in

Feb will deliver!

Ice is building nicely in the northern sections and will continue to do so. Sections in the lower part of the NE (Mass, Catskills, PA) will have one more bump in the road before things are start to really take off. (but the good news it, it looks like there will be an ice season for those sections!)

Now the details:

First off (warning geek talk ahead) the Stratosphere has been near historic cold (which is the exact opposite of what you want to support a neg AO and NAO pattern (which is exactly what produces stellar ice in the NE) Well that has flipped on his head and now is near record heat.

Check out the temps over the North America in the upper Stratosphere: (Hugh spike)


That allows the upper levels of the atmosphere to expand and press down on the lower levels (where we live) and produce some real cold and blocking to support the pattern we want.

So that in check, now we finally see the models and indicators responding in accordance

NAO: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

(Finally getting to neutral after being heavily positive for the first half of winter

AO: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

(Going down and forecasted to go negative)

And the 8-10 day temp average say it all: (and continue to say more or less the same thing)


As for the lack of snow? Well now that it looks like the cold will invade and with the tropical jet stream still very active, when (not if) the two should meet, that will very likely lead to some decent snow for the NE finally (maybe even a big storm or two) So by the start of Feb things will be looking much more white around these parts.
Stay tuned!

01-05-2012, 10:55 PM
I just checked Accucrap.com (accuweather.com) and funny they are now getting on the winter is back bandwagon too and saying the same crap I've been calling for for the last 2 months....



"According to Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams, who keeps an eye on temperatures high in the atmosphere for potential changes down the road, "There is another round of warming going on in the stratosphere over western Canada."

Warming in this area tends to be a signature for colder weather in the Eastern states 10 to 14 days later. There was some warming prior to the cold shot that recently invaded the East.

"This could be a signature for another cold wave from the Upper Midwest to the Eastern states later next week," Abrams said

01-06-2012, 05:46 AM
Thanks for that smike, I totally appreciate it. Very informative to say the least.... one thing was for sure, poser's understand geek speak.

01-10-2012, 10:11 PM
So far there is no doubting how far we have come in just the last 10 days. One last 'warm' storm to roll up the east coast then were off. (If it starts to rain, don't painic!) This storm is going to be followed by a quick hitting cold front that could very well get some unusal stuff to form. For those that have those type of things on their list to watch for, end of this week maybe the time to get on it...

In 30 days the difference is going to be dramatic. Also as things get rocking, don't wait! This season is going to boil down to about 30-45 total days of solid contiditions on average. Not a long season by any means!

Here is a cool image of the recent sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event: (ya throw that name around while fishing for your next date..)


All things are still pointing to change to cold and then snow to follow.

Great post that explains the overall pattern up to now, and what and why its changing: http://doctoochweather.wordpress.com/

Oh ya if you wanted to know who was cashing in on this winter, look no further then Alaska: