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View Full Version : Jan and beyond - Changes on the way



smike
12-26-2011, 03:54 PM
New year, new weather pattern to finally give us a real winter.

Finally things are progressing to change the overall pattern that should allow the flow to come from Canada instead of the south US.

The latest 8-10 forecast averages are now showing what should be the new winter pattern: (Ridge in the west, tough in the east)

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/hgtcomp.html

The left is the European forecast Model (The most accurate in the business) and the right is the US model (second most accurate)

Notice the dark blue showing over Greenland where a negative NAO is forcing the air coming across Canada and dumping it into the eastern US. This is typical of the pattern we had over the last 2 winters.

Now what could go wrong? Well *if* the current factors contributing to a wide spread pattern change fail to produce this change at this stage in the game, pretty much winter will be a major bust. Then we are going to limp along as we are now, with ice confined only to the northern sections, and with bouts of rain to deal with. The good news is the odds are in favor of change.

Ice Forecast:

Northern sections. (Dacks, Washington area)

So far we are on track (albeit delayed by about 30 days) with Adirondacks and NH getting ice established in the higher locations, after this storm coming through Wed the lower elevation ice should really get rolling.

Mid Sections: (Mass, Catskills, PA)

Pretty much a no show so far. When this new pattern gets established (8-10 days) we should finally see a building process in place and finally get the season started. Given all that I read, the season is not a lost cause!

Southern sections: (WV on south)

This is not your year. The cold if it can get south will be short lived. This will be in great contrast to the past 2 seasons. Get in your car and drive north.