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View Full Version : Dec - Jan Outlook - Winter Is Not Dead!



smike
12-14-2011, 10:32 PM
A quick post here, as I've been way too busy to do much (maybe ok since ice has been meger)

I want to make the following points:

1. The winter patern as described in Early Nov is still on track. Its taking a bit longer for things to come together (hence the intrusion of warm air so far)

2. The seeds of change are already in play. Colder air has come in, but we will still see bouts of warmer air and rain. This is not a slam dunk case of winter getting turned on and all the warmth gone until March. We are in the battle zone of cold vs warm. The good news is that zone is slowly moving south. (as it should be this time of year)

3. The progressive pattern is turning more favorable to a blocking pattern (no were not trying to call plays for the NFL) what this means is the quick ups and downs in temps will slow, and cold will hang in longer once it hits. The NAO has been very positive for the last 30 day. (exactly opposite of what we want for ice building in the NE) this appear to be changing to a more neutral or negative state in the next 10 days.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

Look at how well the positive states of the NAO relate to the periods of warth and no ice for the NE.

4. Next week will feature a big storm, but the question is going to be, rain, snow, cold? The storm has the potential to put a big hurting on what ice is building now, or help give our slow ice season a big boost. Will need to keep an eye on this.

5. Ice for the northern tier locations looks like it will be good by Christmas. Points south such as the Catskills are going to in a tough spot until early to mid Jan.

Overall it's a slow start for sure, but still on track to end with a bang. Maybe with the winter pattern slow to getting established will translate into a season holding on longer (I.e March)

Winter is not dead! Have faith!

Mike