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smike
11-21-2011, 12:52 PM
Winter Cancelled?
Were the hell is my Choc stout Pat???? And let’s take that beach loving, tooth pick umbrella fancy drinking, island hopping bastard Jack Frost and drag his sorry ass back up north. Time to get some work done. Before we move on in the interest of transparency, I must confess I was directed to throw out a ton of shiny charts that would create confusion and issue a bum ice forecast for Nov as the powers that be wanted to have first dibs to get the first classic ‘foot’ shots for the Neice cover. It was all for the glory! This is gonna be a big shake down in the history of Neice. Or maybe good ice is an allusion of Young’s Double Choc. Stout!?**

Looking back
Ok back to the show. So with Jack on the fence, and my last forecast where did that leave us? Let’s see, for 99% that occupy the ‘daily grind’ and are waiting for some reliable ice, no such luck yet. For the 1% that have gone out to higher terrain (i.e. Washington, Mt. Lincoln) their efforts have paid off with some early season sticks. Always awesome to see someone pushing in the season! So effort pays if you want play!

Ok forget all that and just tell me what’s going happen:Canada to blame?
Ok this time let’s throw out the charts and get right to the business. The pattern has been a progressive pattern (meaning things are moving in and out at a pretty fast clip), so conditions have been varying greatly day to day. The idea of a crash to winter has turned into more of a swing back and forth with a gradual decent to colder temps. So far no blocking of the pattern has been able to establish itself (NAO has been way to positive. Warning chart! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif) , so until the blocking sets up and forces some cold Canadian air to stick around (Maybe mid Dec) things are going to stay highly variable. For now, we will just blame Canada (or thank them for what we have)

The Next Ten Days:
Over the next 10 days we will see some way below average temps, along with way above average temps. Beyond 10 days the overall factors that are taking place are still on track for good ice season. Just need work with what we got for now, or hedge you bets with a stock pile of your favorite malts (single or with hopes) and read Neice.

Here’s my take on the upcoming week / weekend:

Adirondacks , Northern VT + NH. (Higher elevation)
Nice cold early this week should help build some base on top of what has already started, then moderating temps above freezing over the coming weekend.

Adirondacks , Northern VT + NH. (Lower elevation)
Might get some early season ice forming early in the week, but rain and well above freezing temps by the weekend will wipe the slate clean.

Catskills and south:
Go play golf

That’s all for now! Oh, ya, thanks to Doug and team for throwing up the fancy new forums!

Mike

**Events may not represent actual truth, but makes for a good story!

Spence
11-21-2011, 03:27 PM
Mike - peering into your cyrstal ball any prediction for say the 15-20 day outlook? We've locked in a trip up the week of Dec 8-12....

Mt Wash - Huntington ravine???

Cheers - Wash DC Spence

smike
11-21-2011, 05:09 PM
Mike - peering into your cyrstal ball any prediction for say the 15-20 day outlook? We've locked in a trip up the week of Dec 8-12....

Mt Wash - Huntington ravine???

Cheers - Wash DC Spence

If your destination is Washington you'll be fine. It would have to be a pretty bad (i.e. warm) December for ravines not to be in shape then. You should be more on the look out, for it being too harsh (too cold and windy) :)

Spence
11-22-2011, 08:45 AM
Thanks for the Beta.... Mike

Spence
12-02-2011, 11:46 AM
Ugh.... Mike so we arrive on the 8th - Anything postive (ice) gonna happen? Should we bring our trad gear? We're locked in just not sure what to exspect..... Weather report above 5,000 looks be holding in the 20/teens.

Any suggestions??

Thanks - Spence

pcooke
12-02-2011, 12:22 PM
I think you're going to be fine @ the higher elevations on the Rock Pile by the 8th. Bring some trad gear in case of thin ice and get after it!
-Pat

Spence
12-02-2011, 12:33 PM
Thanks Pat - game on!!!!